Saturday, 22 June 2013

UK Horse Racing Tipsters Analyis of Royal Ascot

UK Horse Racing Tipsters Analyis of Royal Ascot

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

This week at Royal Ascot was certainly not one for those who like to back favourites and the last day proved that with a 100% strike rate for anyone who decided to follow my "get your ass out of Ascot jail system" I devised last night and laid every favourite running this final Saturday.

Not only did every single favourite on the last day lose but 4 came 2nd, one fell whilst leading (Ektihaam) and the other one came 9th.

It was certainly a day that ended with many a bookmaker rolling round their bathtubs in wads of twenty and fifty pound notes.

However if you did decide to follow my lay all favourites system then you would have ended up with a full house of losing favourites and a nice pocket of wedge.

Along with all the earlier big favourites who failed to win during the week such as Animal Kingdom, Camelot,  Shea Shea, Coach House and Battle Of Marengo we added to this Saturday's failures: Bunker, Ektihaam, Society Rock, Gabriel's Lad, Stencive and Frankie Dettori's last hope of a winner this week Shahwardi.

Therefore my last minute system to get punters who had been favourite backing out the Royal Ascot ditch they may had falled into during the week sure paid off on the last day, it most certainly did for me as I laid every single favourite whether their price was less than 4/1 or not.

I don't know the historical statistics for Royal Ascot in terms of favourites but in my table of favourite win bias by course Ascot comes near the bottom with a 31.63% win bias as opposed to Cartmel at the top with 45%. As the average is roughly 35% for favourites of any price to win a race then this is quite low.

However it's not as low as the two bottom courses, Roscommon and York who both sit round the 26% mark and this explains why I often swerve favourites as York due to their low win percentage.

This is the full table of all favourites who raced at Ascot this week including co and joint favourites. It is based on Betfair prices and uses the prices my own AutoBOT obtained from the Betfair Exchange (not BSP) before the race started (as well as including the best LAY price in the range column).

DateRaceHorseFinish PosLast Back PriceLay Price RangeProfit 1Profit 2
Jun 18 2013 2:30PMQueen Anne StakesAnimal Kingdom112.252.04 - 2.5010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 3:05PMKing's Stand StakesShea Shea23.753.65 - 4.1010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 3:45PMSt James's Palace StakesDawn Approach12.252.34 - 2.44-14.40-13.40
Jun 18 2013 4:25PMCoventry StakesStubbs63.503.80 - 3.8010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 5:00PMAscot StakesTiger Cliff25.005.40 - 5.7010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 5:35PMWindsor Castle StakesAnticipated35.005.40 - 6.2010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 2:30PMJersey StakesGale Force Ten15.505.60 - 5.60-46.00-46.00
Jun 19 2013 3:05PMDuke Of Cambridge StakesChigun63.753.90 - 3.9010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 3:45PMPrince Of Wales's StakesCamelot43.503.60 - 3.7510.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupTwo For Two1211.0013.00 - 14.5010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupFury1811.0012.50 - 17.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupStirring Ballad2211.0011.00 - 14.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 5:00PMQueen Mary StakesBeldale Memory145.005.30 - 6.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 5:35PMSandringham HandicapMango Diva97.007.20 - 8.0010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 2:30PMNorfolk StakesCoach House23.252.98 - 3.4510.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 3:05PMRibblesdale StakesWinsili44.003.65 - 4.5010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 3:45PMGold CupEstimate14.505.00 - 5.20-42.00-40.00
Jun 20 2013 4:25PMBritannia StakesWentworth44.504.80 - 5.2010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 5:00PMTercentenary StakesRemote13.253.30 - 3.55-25.50-23.00
Jun 20 2013 5:35PMKing George V StakesBold Sniper34.505.10 - 5.1010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 2:30PMAlbany StakesSandiva22.882.90 - 2.9010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:05PMKing Edward VII StakesBattle Of Marengo22.061.93 - 2.0810.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:45PMCoronation StakesBig Break76.205.60 - 6.4010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:45PMCoronation StakesSky Lantern16.005.90 - 6.20-52.00-49.00
Jun 21 2013 4:25PMWolferton HandicapAlbasharah54.604.50 - 4.7010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 5:00PMQueen's Vase In Memory Of Sir Henry CecilLeading Light12.502.48 - 2.52-15.20-14.80
Jun 21 2013 5:35PMBuckingham Palace StakesEnrol218.407.80 - 8.6010.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 2:30PMChesham StakesBunker23.853.90 - 3.9010.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 3:05PMHardwicke StakesEktihaamFell3.403.45 - 3.4510.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 3:45PMDiamond Jubilee StakesSociety Rock25.505.30 - 5.6010.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 4:25PMWokingham StakesGabriel's Lad97.807.80 - 8.0010.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 5.00PMDuke Of Edinburgh HandicapStencive26.606.80 - 6.8010.0010.00
Jun 22 2013 5.35PMQueen Alexandra StakesShahwardi24.404.10 - 4.5010.0010.00
Daily Profit / Loss by laying the favourites (last price - best price)

  • Day 1: £35.50  or  £36.60
  • Day 2: £24 or £24
  • Day 3:  -£27.50 or -£23
  • Day 4: -£17.20 or -£13.80
  • Day 5: £60 (100% strike rate)


So if you had followed a system of blindly laying every single favourite during Royal Ascot at £10 stakes (at the best lay price) you would now be in profit by £83.80. 

However if you had only laid favourites that were less than 4/1 (5.00) you would be in profit by £215.60  (or £184.90 at the last lay prices) with only three losses, that of Dawn Approach, Remote and Leading Light during the whole week!

And if you had swapped to my system purely for the last day you would have made £60 at £10 stakes with every single one of the 6 runners today losing their races.

Hopefully some of you followed my lead. I'm certainly glad I spent the time last night looking into a way of getting myself out the hole as 6 £100 lay bets gave me £600 and certainly got me back into the black for the week, especially after some annoying loses on Battle of Marengo, Animal Kingdom and Magician.

However, as a meeting, it has been a great spectacle.

We saw Dawn Approach put himself back on the map as the best 3-year-old miler, the reputation of Dubai World Cup winner and Breeders Cup Miler Animal Kingdom fall apart on the green grass of Ascot and the Queen even got to present herself with her own Gold Cup.
Sweetest of all might have been the winning of the Ribblesdale Stakes by Lady Cecil's Riposte

Apparently Sir Henry Cecils favourite race it was a sweet gesture in honour of a great trainer, and only this could better a minute's silence for a hero of the training world. What better way to honour the famous trainer of the great Frankel than a winner at Royal Ascot.

The only sad point came today in an event filled Hardwicke Stakes in which the favourite Ektihaam lost his balance on the wet grass throwing jockey Paul Hanagan across the rails only to see the eventual winner Thomas Chippendale, another horse trained by Lady Cecilbreak down after winning and dying of a suspected heart attack.

So was it worth watching, yes.

Was it worth betting on - depends on whether you laid or backed and who you went for. It certainly wasn't a week for favourite backers.

Was Channel 4 right in buying the rights from BBC1 to show the event - most definitely!

They provided a much better programme than the BBC ever did, with far less nonsense, albeit still some, about hats and ladies dresses and much more detailed pre and post race analysis of the events they showed.

All in all it was a good Royal Ascot festival. Hopefully you managed to make some money from it!


View the original article "The Last Day Of Royal Ascot And Not A Favourite Winner In Sight!" at ukhorseracingtipster.com

Friday, 21 June 2013

Royal Ascot Not A Week For Favourites

Royal Ascot Not A Week For Favourites

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster
This week at Royal Ascot has not been one for favourite backers.
Big favourites like Animal Kingdom, Camelot,  Shea Shea, Coach House and Battle Of Marengo all lost this week.
Therefore considering this you might want to take a LAY approach to the last day of Ascot if you are down at the moment.
I could not believe Battle of Marengo went so keen so early and I knew it would lose as I sat in the hospital watching 7 lengths ahead a few furlongs out with Hillstar charging up from the back to catch him. It was so obvious I was cursing JP O’Brien before he had even lost the race.
The full list of favourites and their potential profit or loss are below.
I have inclued the last BACK price as well and next to that is a range from the lowest obtained LAY price to the last price my AutoBOT got before the race started. The Profit 1 column uses the last lay price and the Profit 2 column uses the best / lowest obtained lay price.
In fact if you had used Betfair and blindly laid all favourites in every race at £10 stakes and used the last lay price that was available on the exchanges then you would now be (a massive!) £15 in profit right now.
However if you had managed to get the best lay price you would be up by £23.80.  Obviously if you were laying at £100 stakes that’s £230.80 profit.

DateRaceHorseFinish PosLast Back PriceLay Price RangeProfit 1Profit 2
Jun 18 2013 2:30PMQueen Anne StakesAnimal Kingdom112.252.04 – 2.5010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 3:05PMKing’s Stand StakesShea Shea23.753.65 – 4.1010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 3:45PMSt James’s Palace StakesDawn Approach12.252.34 – 2.44-14.40-13.40
Jun 18 2013 4:25PMCoventry StakesStubbs63.503.80 – 3.8010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 5:00PMAscot StakesTiger Cliff25.005.40 – 5.7010.0010.00
Jun 18 2013 5:35PMWindsor Castle StakesAnticipated35.005.40 – 6.2010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 2:30PMJersey StakesGale Force Ten15.505.60 – 5.60-46.00-46.00
Jun 19 2013 3:05PMDuke Of Cambridge StakesChigun63.753.90 – 3.9010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 3:45PMPrince Of Wales’s StakesCamelot43.503.60 – 3.7510.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupTwo For Two1211.0013.00 – 14.5010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupFury1811.0012.50 – 17.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 4:25PMRoyal Hunt CupStirring Ballad2211.0011.00 – 14.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 5:00PMQueen Mary StakesBeldale Memory145.005.30 – 6.0010.0010.00
Jun 19 2013 5:35PMSandringham HandicapMango Diva97.007.20 – 8.0010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 2:30PMNorfolk StakesCoach House23.252.98 – 3.4510.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 3:05PMRibblesdale StakesWinsili44.003.65 – 4.5010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 3:45PMGold CupEstimate14.505.00 – 5.20-42.00-40.00
Jun 20 2013 4:25PMBritannia StakesWentworth44.504.80 – 5.2010.0010.00
Jun 20 2013 5:00PMTercentenary StakesRemote13.253.30 – 3.55-25.50-23.00
Jun 20 2013 5:35PMKing George V StakesBold Sniper34.505.10 – 5.1010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 2:30PMAlbany StakesSandiva22.882.90 – 2.9010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:05PMKing Edward VII StakesBattle Of Marengo22.061.93 – 2.0810.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:45PMCoronation StakesBig Break76.205.60 – 6.4010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 3:45PMCoronation StakesSky Lantern16.005.90 – 6.20-52.00-49.00
Jun 21 2013 4:25PMWolferton HandicapAlbasharah54.604.50 – 4.7010.0010.00
Jun 21 2013 5:00PMQueen’s Vase In Memory Of Sir Henry CecilLeading Light12.502.48 – 2.52-15.20-14.80
Jun 21 2013 5:35PMBuckingham Palace StakesEnrol218.407.80 – 8.6010.0010.00
Daily Profit / Loss by laying the favourites (last price – best price)
Day 1: £35.50  or  £36.60
Day 2: £24 or £24
Day 3:  -£27.50 or -£23
Day 4: -£17.20 or -£13.80

However..
If we had only laid favourites that were less than 4/1 (5.00) we would be in profit by £185.60  (or £154.90 at the last lay prices) with only three losses, that of Dawn Approach, Remote and Leading Light.
Of course if you were laying at £100 a bet then this becomes £1,856.00 which isn’t too shabby considering this meeting has been a mismatch of quite a few favourites at prices of 4/1 or more winning and big names and short priced favourites such as Animal Kingdom, Sandiva and Battle of Marengo losing.
Therefore it is only an option but if you are down so far over this Ascot meeting and you don’t like laying multiple runners per race in case a 25/1 shot like Lightning Cloud wins then tomorrow laying all favourites under 4/1 (5.00) could be a valid option considering the record so far at the meeting.
The weather is muggy, the horses have been sweating lots (along with the punters) and we have had some surprising losses. So have a look tomorrow and use Betfair to put on your lay bets.
By the way if you were into laying multiple runners per race then you would be in profit by £1210.30 (using the best lay price) or£935.40 (using the last recorded lay price) if you had laid every single runner in every race so far this week.

Monday, 17 June 2013

Day 1 - Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot - Day 1

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

It's day one of Royal Ascot, the flat meeting we have all been waiting for and one of the most famous meetings the world over.

Trainers from all over the world have brought their horses thousands of miles to run at this meeting and prove themselves in front of the Queen.

Last year we had the unbeaten Australian super star, Black Caviar, travel halfway across the world to win by a nose in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

This year we have the Dubai World Cup winner and Breeders Cup Miler runner-up Animal Kingdom come from the USA to compete in the Queen Anne Stakes in the first race of the day at 14:30.

Will he prove himself the best miler of his generation, remember Excelebration, the permanent runner-up to Frankel, came 4th in the Breeders Cup Mile behind Wise Dan, Aninmal Kingdom and Obviously.

We also have a great clash of the younger milers in a rematch between the Derby flop Dawn Approach and Toronado who was destroyed by him in the English 2000 Guineas. This race is the main clash of the day at 15:45 in the St James's Palace Stakes.

However added to the mix we also have the Irish 2000 Guineas winner Magician running. As 2nd favourite he looks like the horse to beat if Dawn Approach is to reclaim his reputation after a poor Epsom performance.

There are lots of bet offers going for the Royal Ascot Festival and you should check out my up to date betting offers page which has all the Royal Ascot bet offers. Some of which include:

SkyBet who are paying out 4 places in the King's Stand Stakes 3.05 pm and Windsor Castle Stakes 5.35 pm on Tuesday. You can get a free £10 bet just for joining (no deposit required).

BetVictor who are paying out a £25 free bet on any race in which you bet on a horse that doesn't win but one ridden by Champion Jockey Richard Hughes does.

Of course there are many more including Bet365 4/1 offer in which if you keep backing winners of 4/1 or more they will keep giving you free bets.


The AutoBOT Rankings for the St James's Palace Stakes at 15:45

This is how my AutoBOT has ranked the big race of the day the St James's Palace Stakes for the 3 year olds.

The race is over 1 mile and the going is currently good.

St James's Palace Stakes - 15:45


HorseRatingsTimeBetfair Market
Dawn Approach(OR: 125) (AutoBOT: 496)15:45Betfair
Magician(OR: 122) (AutoBOT: 449)15:45Betfair
Toronado(OR: 118) (AutoBOT: 393)15:45Betfair
Dundonnell(OR: 113) (AutoBOT: 289)15:45Betfair
Glory Awaits(OR: 114) (AutoBOT: 169)15:45Betfair
Mars(OR: 114) (AutoBOT: 100)15:45Betfair
Leitir Mor(OR: 107) (AutoBOT: 73)15:45Betfair
Mshawish(OR: 114) (AutoBOT: 60)15:45Betfair
George Vancouver(OR: 110) (AutoBOT: 56)15:45Betfair

My Own Tips For Royal Ascot Today

These are my own tips for today - take them or leave them but I will see how I do against the AutoBOT!

Queen Anne Stakes - 1m - Good - 14:30 - Animal Kingdom

King's Stand Stakes - 5f - Good - 15:05 - Reckless Abandon

St James's Palace Stakes - 1m - Good - Magician

Coventry Stakes - 6f - Good - Thunder Strike

Ascot Stakes - 2m 4f - Good - Well Sharp

Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f - Good - Anticipated

Remember to check out all the betting offers on my Royal Ascot bet offers page and make the most of your money. Why spend your own when you can spend the Bookmakers!

View the original aritcle Royal Ascot - Day 1 at www.ukhorseracingtipster.com