UK Horse Racing Tipsters Analyis of Royal AscotBy The UK Horse Racing Tipster
This week at Royal Ascot was certainly not one for those who like to back favourites and the last day proved that with a 100% strike rate for anyone who decided to follow my "get your ass out of Ascot jail system" I devised last night and laid every favourite running this final Saturday.
Not only did every single favourite on the last day lose but 4 came 2nd, one fell whilst leading () and the other one came 9th.
It was certainly a day that ended with many a bookmaker rolling round their bathtubs in wads of twenty and fifty pound notes.
However if you did decide to follow my lay all favourites system then you would have ended up with a full house of losing favourites and a nice pocket of wedge.
Along with all the earlier big favourites who failed to win during the week such as Animal Kingdom, Camelot, Shea Shea, Coach House and Battle Of Marengo we added to this Saturday's failures: Bunker, Ektihaam, Society Rock, Gabriel's Lad, Stencive and Frankie Dettori's last hope of a winner this week Shahwardi.
Therefore my last minute system to get punters who had been favourite backing out the Royal Ascot ditch they may had falled into during the week sure paid off on the last day, it most certainly did for me as I laid every single favourite whether their price was less than 4/1 or not.
I don't know the historical statistics for Royal Ascot in terms of favourites but in my table of favourite win bias by course Ascot comes near the bottom with a 31.63% win bias as opposed to Cartmel at the top with 45%. As the average is roughly 35% for favourites of any price to win a race then this is quite low.
However it's not as low as the two bottom courses, Roscommon and York who both sit round the 26% mark and this explains why I often swerve favourites as York due to their low win percentage.
This is the full table of all favourites who raced at Ascot this week including co and joint favourites. It is based on Betfair prices and uses the prices my own AutoBOT obtained from the Betfair Exchange (not BSP) before the race started (as well as including the best LAY price in the range column).
|Date||Race||Horse||Finish Pos||Last Back Price||Lay Price Range||Profit 1||Profit 2|
|Jun 18 2013 2:30PM||Queen Anne Stakes||Animal Kingdom||11||2.25||2.04 - 2.50||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 18 2013 3:05PM||King's Stand Stakes||Shea Shea||2||3.75||3.65 - 4.10||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 18 2013 3:45PM||St James's Palace Stakes||Dawn Approach||1||2.25||2.34 - 2.44||-14.40||-13.40|
|Jun 18 2013 4:25PM||Coventry Stakes||Stubbs||6||3.50||3.80 - 3.80||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 18 2013 5:00PM||Ascot Stakes||Tiger Cliff||2||5.00||5.40 - 5.70||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 18 2013 5:35PM||Windsor Castle Stakes||Anticipated||3||5.00||5.40 - 6.20||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 2:30PM||Jersey Stakes||Gale Force Ten||1||5.50||5.60 - 5.60||-46.00||-46.00|
|Jun 19 2013 3:05PM||Duke Of Cambridge Stakes||Chigun||6||3.75||3.90 - 3.90||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 3:45PM||Prince Of Wales's Stakes||Camelot||4||3.50||3.60 - 3.75||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 4:25PM||Royal Hunt Cup||Two For Two||12||11.00||13.00 - 14.50||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 4:25PM||Royal Hunt Cup||Fury||18||11.00||12.50 - 17.00||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 4:25PM||Royal Hunt Cup||Stirring Ballad||22||11.00||11.00 - 14.00||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 5:00PM||Queen Mary Stakes||Beldale Memory||14||5.00||5.30 - 6.00||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 19 2013 5:35PM||Sandringham Handicap||Mango Diva||9||7.00||7.20 - 8.00||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 20 2013 2:30PM||Norfolk Stakes||Coach House||2||3.25||2.98 - 3.45||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 20 2013 3:05PM||Ribblesdale Stakes||Winsili||4||4.00||3.65 - 4.50||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 20 2013 3:45PM||Gold Cup||Estimate||1||4.50||5.00 - 5.20||-42.00||-40.00|
|Jun 20 2013 4:25PM||Britannia Stakes||Wentworth||4||4.50||4.80 - 5.20||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 20 2013 5:00PM||Tercentenary Stakes||Remote||1||3.25||3.30 - 3.55||-25.50||-23.00|
|Jun 20 2013 5:35PM||King George V Stakes||Bold Sniper||3||4.50||5.10 - 5.10||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 21 2013 2:30PM||Albany Stakes||Sandiva||2||2.88||2.90 - 2.90||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 21 2013 3:05PM||King Edward VII Stakes||Battle Of Marengo||2||2.06||1.93 - 2.08||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 21 2013 3:45PM||Coronation Stakes||Big Break||7||6.20||5.60 - 6.40||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 21 2013 3:45PM||Coronation Stakes||Sky Lantern||1||6.00||5.90 - 6.20||-52.00||-49.00|
|Jun 21 2013 4:25PM||Wolferton Handicap||Albasharah||5||4.60||4.50 - 4.70||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 21 2013 5:00PM||Queen's Vase In Memory Of Sir Henry Cecil||Leading Light||1||2.50||2.48 - 2.52||-15.20||-14.80|
|Jun 21 2013 5:35PM||Buckingham Palace Stakes||Enrol||21||8.40||7.80 - 8.60||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 2:30PM||Chesham Stakes||Bunker||2||3.85||3.90 - 3.90||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 3:05PM||Hardwicke Stakes||Ektihaam||Fell||3.40||3.45 - 3.45||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 3:45PM||Diamond Jubilee Stakes||Society Rock||2||5.50||5.30 - 5.60||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 4:25PM||Wokingham Stakes||Gabriel's Lad||9||7.80||7.80 - 8.00||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 5.00PM||Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap||Stencive||2||6.60||6.80 - 6.80||10.00||10.00|
|Jun 22 2013 5.35PM||Queen Alexandra Stakes||Shahwardi||2||4.40||4.10 - 4.50||10.00||10.00|
Daily Profit / Loss by laying the favourites (last price - best price)
- Day 1: £35.50 or £36.60
- Day 2: £24 or £24
- Day 3: -£27.50 or -£23
- Day 4: -£17.20 or -£13.80
- Day 5: £60 (100% strike rate)
So if you had followed a system of blindly laying every single favourite during Royal Ascot at £10 stakes (at the best lay price) you would now be in profit by £83.80.
However if you had only laid favourites that were less than 4/1 (5.00) you would be in profit by £215.60 (or £184.90 at the last lay prices) with only three losses, that of Dawn Approach, Remote and Leading Light during the whole week!
And if you had swapped to my system purely for the last day you would have made £60 at £10 stakes with every single one of the 6 runners today losing their races.
Hopefully some of you followed my lead. I'm certainly glad I spent the time last night looking into a way of getting myself out the hole as 6 £100 lay bets gave me £600 and certainly got me back into the black for the week, especially after some annoying loses on Battle of Marengo, Animal Kingdom and Magician.
However, as a meeting, it has been a great spectacle.
We saw Dawn Approach put himself back on the map as the best 3-year-old miler, the reputation of Dubai World Cup winner and Breeders Cup Miler Animal Kingdom fall apart on the green grass of Ascot and the Queen even got to present herself with her own Gold Cup.
Sweetest of all might have been the winning of the Ribblesdale Stakes by Lady Cecil's Riposte.
Apparently Sir Henry Cecils favourite race it was a sweet gesture in honour of a great trainer, and only this could better a minute's silence for a hero of the training world. What better way to honour the famous trainer of the great Frankel than a winner at Royal Ascot.
The only sad point came today in an event filled Hardwicke Stakes in which the favourite Ektihaam lost his balance on the wet grass throwing jockey Paul Hanagan across the rails only to see the eventual winner Thomas Chippendale, another horse trained by Lady Cecil, break down after winning and dying of a suspected heart attack.
So was it worth watching, yes.
Was it worth betting on - depends on whether you laid or backed and who you went for. It certainly wasn't a week for favourite backers.
Was Channel 4 right in buying the rights from BBC1 to show the event - most definitely!
They provided a much better programme than the BBC ever did, with far less nonsense, albeit still some, about hats and ladies dresses and much more detailed pre and post race analysis of the events they showed.
All in all it was a good Royal Ascot festival. Hopefully you managed to make some money from it!
View the original article "The Last Day Of Royal Ascot And Not A Favourite Winner In Sight!" at ukhorseracingtipster.com